速配

    今天一些媒體新聞報導了標準普爾調降了美國（我在後面附上英文原文）長期債信主權評等的展望。不過一般媒體似乎說的並不精準，標準普爾調降的是"展望"，"目前"的評等還是三個A。還提到其實有三分之二的機率未來是不會調降的。

    （他大概有學過行為財務學，不然他應該說有三分之一的機率未來會調降。）

David Beers, the global head of sovereign ratings at Standard & Poor's, spoke to reporters via teleconference.

"A negative outlook means that in S&P's opinion, there is at least a one in three chance that over roughly the next two years, that we could lower the rating," said Beers. "It also means, conversely, that there is, in the committee's opinion, a two-thirds chance that the rating might not change."   

     而台灣的新聞媒體都大略的只說，標準普爾調降美國主權評等到負面。這樣有點危言聳聽的感覺，其實這當然是重要新聞，放在頭版也不為過，但是不放在頭版，又沒有說清楚，這樣似乎更不好。

   倒是標準普爾分析師Nikola提及歐八碼和美國國會是否能一致的就未來幾年的財政問題作一整體考量，才是觀察重點。 

 S&P analyst Nikola Swann says that in the wake of the recent financial crisis, lawmakers have yet to agree on ways to address longer-term financial pressures and ways to reverse fiscal deterioration.

"If the Congress and the president do not succeed in coming to an agreement for a plan to consolidate fiscally on a multi-year basis that we think is credible by 2013, in that circumstance, with other things unchanged, we would expect to downgrade," said Swann.

   話說回來，美國的信評機構能對自己國家能較客觀的將主權評等調作負向展望，中國的信評公司什麼時後也能夠客觀的對中國的主權降等，中國的經濟環境就能到一個新的境界了。